College Football Playoff Projections: The Chaos Continues as Championship Weekend Approaches

With conference championships on the horizon, the race for the College Football Playoff spots is heating up. A mix of established contenders and surprise teams have created a fascinating bubble watch that could change drastically in the coming weeks.

As the college football season nears its conclusion, predicting the field for the 2024 College Football Playoff (CFP) is proving to be more complicated than ever. Chaos has dominated the last few weeks, leaving fans and analysts alike guessing at which teams will secure a coveted spot in the Playoff. Now that the picture is clearer with teams set for conference championship games, the playoff race is coming into focus.

Last Four In

• Ohio State: Despite a shocking 13-10 loss to Michigan in the regular-season finale, Ohio State remains firmly in the playoff picture. With a 10-2 record and wins over Penn State and Indiana, the Buckeyes are still well-positioned to make the Playoff.
• Tennessee: After a win over Vanderbilt, Tennessee secured its 10th win of the season and punched its ticket to the Playoff. The Volunteers survived the chaos of recent weeks and are one of the final teams with a chance.
• Indiana: Finishing the regular season with an impressive 66-0 win over Purdue, Indiana (11-1) took advantage of the fallout from teams like Alabama and Ole Miss, who lost during the past weekend. The Hoosiers now find themselves in the playoff hunt.
• SMU: With just two losses, SMU has a solid resume and can secure a spot even with a loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship. The Mustangs are on the bubble, and all eyes will be on them as they face off against the Tigers.

First Four Out

• Alabama: Despite being the favorite in some circles, Alabama’s three-loss season places it in a precarious position. A win from SMU over Clemson could open the door for the Crimson Tide, but their path is uncertain.
• Ole Miss: The Rebels’ loss to Florida has hurt their chances, and while they have good wins over Georgia and South Carolina, their inconsistent season leaves them on the outside looking in.
• South Carolina: One of the hottest teams, South Carolina has wins over quality opponents, but losses to Alabama, LSU, and Ole Miss make their CFP hopes slim. A potential inclusion would require chaos to unfold in their favor.
• Miami: The Hurricanes’ playoff hopes were dashed after a devastating loss to Syracuse. Despite a 10-2 record, Miami lacks quality wins and their case for inclusion is weakening.

Next Four Out

• Iowa State: The Cyclones are still in the hunt, having clinched a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. A win against Arizona State would give them a strong case, but they face tough competition.
• Missouri: A solid 9-3 season, but with three losses to playoff contenders, Missouri has not done enough to remain in the conversation. They will finish near the top 20 but fall short of the CFP.
• Texas A&M: After a loss to Texas in a crucial rivalry game, the Aggies are eliminated from contention. However, the season was a step forward under coach Mike Elko.
• BYU: Despite a strong 9-0 start, BYU faltered in the latter part of the season. They will finish in the top 20 but will not make the playoff.

Group of 5 Watch

• UNLV: Despite two losses, UNLV could still make the Playoff if they beat Boise State in the Mountain West Championship. With a win, the Rebels would be the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion.
• Boise State: The Broncos have one loss to Oregon and could still have a shot at representing the Group of 5 if they beat UNLV.
• Army: Army’s one loss to Notre Dame puts them in the running for a potential AAC title and a playoff bid if they beat Tulane.

Projected Bracket

• No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State: Winner faces No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl.
• No. 12 UNLV at No. 5 Penn State: Winner faces No. 4 Arizona State in the Fiesta Bowl.
• No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Georgia: Winner faces No. 2 Texas in the Sugar Bowl.
• No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Notre Dame: Winner faces No. 3 Clemson in the Peach Bowl.

As conference championships draw near, the College Football Playoff field will likely take shape. However, with the current level of unpredictability, fans should prepare for more surprises as the season concludes.