Rumble’s Rise and Recent Decline
Rumble has distinguished itself by promoting a politically “neutral” stance, offering a platform where users can share content with fewer restrictions compared to major platforms like Alphabet’s Google and YouTube or Meta’s Facebook and Instagram. As a result, Rumble has attracted many conservative and right-leaning creators who feel censored on these larger platforms. The platform has secured backing from prominent conservative figures such as Peter Thiel, Vivek Ramaswamy, and U.S. Senator J.D. Vance, as well as from Truth Social, Donald Trump’s media venture.
In 2022, Rumble’s monthly active users (MAUs) peaked at 80 million but have since dwindled to around 53 million as of mid-2024. This decline can be attributed to an unstable news cycle and new restrictions by Google that impact creators who attempt to share content on both YouTube and Rumble. Consequently, the platform’s growth has significantly slowed, and it faces rising net losses.
Despite an increase in daily uploaded video hours—from 10,373 to 13,342—the average minutes watched monthly on Rumble dropped from 11.1 billion at the end of 2022 to 8.5 billion by mid-2024. This indicates that while content uploads are increasing, viewer engagement is declining.
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | H1 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $39.4M | $81M | $40.2M |
| Growth (YoY) | 316% | 106% | -6% |
| Net Income (Loss) | -$11.4M | -$116.4M | -$70.1M |
Data Source: Rumble
Near-Term Outlook: Political Content as a Potential Driver
Looking to the near term, the 2024 U.S. elections could drive higher viewership on Rumble, given the anticipated surge in politically-charged content. Analysts expect revenue for the year to grow by 29% to $104.7 million, with a modest reduction in net losses projected to $114.6 million. However, Rumble’s balance sheet remains fragile with only $152 million in cash and cash equivalents as of the latest quarter, signaling potential challenges if losses continue at the current pace.
Rumble claims it is making strides toward a balanced adjusted EBITDA by 2025 as it tightens its spending and expands monetization strategies. Yet, with an expected $87 million in negative adjusted EBITDA for 2024, achieving this goal will require significant progress in both engagement and cost management.
Long-Term Potential: Legal Battles and Market Shifts
Rumble has taken an aggressive stance against Google’s market dominance, filing two lawsuits over the past three years. One lawsuit alleges that Google unfairly promotes its own YouTube videos in search results over competing videos, while the other accuses Google of leveraging its digital ad market power to hinder smaller advertising platforms. The recent antitrust win by the U.S. Justice Department against Google could help swing momentum in Rumble’s favor if it leads to the breakup of Google’s ad-related assets.
Another potential catalyst for Rumble’s growth is the anticipated U.S. government ban on ByteDance’s TikTok, which could go into effect as early as January. This move, though opposed by some prominent conservatives, could eliminate one of Rumble’s biggest competitors in the video streaming space, possibly giving the platform a boost in market share.
Despite these opportunities, however, Rumble still faces substantial challenges. While analysts project that its revenue could grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31%, reaching $183 million by 2026, its enterprise value of $1.6 billion means it trades at a lofty 13 times next year’s sales—a high valuation for a company that is not yet profitable. Additionally, insider activity shows that Rumble insiders sold nearly four times as many shares as they bought over the past year, potentially signaling caution about the stock’s long-term value.
Although upcoming political events, regulatory challenges for Google, and a possible TikTok ban could spark temporary interest in Rumble, these factors alone may not drive sustainable growth. For Rumble to establish itself as a genuine YouTube alternative, it will need to stabilize its core growth metrics, expand its user base, and significantly reduce its financial losses. In an industry dominated by YouTube’s 2.5 billion active users, Rumble has a long road ahead to truly disrupt the market.