In Philadelphia, PA, residents waited in line to vote on the last day of early voting on October 29, 2024. The surge in early voting has attracted attention from academic experts, journalists, and pundits who are analyzing this preliminary data for insights into potential outcomes for next week’s elections.
However, Charles Stewart, director of the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, cautioned that the picture is not entirely clear-cut. “It’s like talking about the weather,” he explained. “Candidates, the press, and others are trying to draw conclusions from data points, but there’s a lot that remains uncertain about who’s winning.”
Stewart acknowledged that early voting data provides some insight into voting patterns and overall turnout but cautioned against jumping to conclusions about the implications for election results.
The Shift Toward Early Voting
Voting trends indicate a growing preference for casting ballots before election day, with participation steadily increasing over the past three decades. The 2020 presidential election marked a significant turning point, with 69% of the 158 million votes cast before election day, either by mail or at early voting sites.
Data showed that nearly 43% of early votes in 2020 were cast via mail. Stewart noted that the COVID-19 pandemic played a significant role in this shift, as many voters sought to avoid crowded polling places.
Despite the pandemic’s influence, this year has seen a decline in mail-in voting, according to Stewart. He observed that the primary trend this year is a shift from mail-in voting to in-person voting. In Georgia, for example, over 4 million ballots were cast early, with about 92% of those votes coming from in-person voting locations, according to the Georgia Secretary of State’s office.
Some swing states, such as Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Arizona, only offer early voting options through absentee ballots. This requires voters to request a mail-in ballot, fill it out, and submit it at designated locations. Many voters may lack the time or energy to navigate these additional steps, prompting a preference for in-person voting.
Partisan Dynamics and Early Voting
Stewart highlighted that historical trends show most early voters make their decisions well in advance and are typically politically engaged. However, he noted a significant change in partisan voting behavior this election cycle.
Registered Republicans have reportedly cast more early votes in swing states like Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina compared to previous elections. Traditionally, early voting has favored Democrats, but Stewart suggested that former President Trump’s encouragement for his supporters to vote early may be affecting turnout.
While Republican officials are touting these high numbers as evidence of growing support, Stewart warned that the data reveals more complexity. Many registered Republicans who voted early were likely the same individuals who participated on election day in 2020, rather than new voters.
Gender and Racial Trends in Early Voting
According to data from the University of Florida, Democratic voters are leveraging a gender gap in early voting, with over 54% of early votes cast by women as of Friday. This trend is not surprising, as women have consistently represented a majority of voters in presidential elections since 1980.
When examining racial demographics, Stewart pointed out that white voters are more likely to vote by mail compared to Black voters. This trend stems from historical civil rights struggles, which instilled a strong tradition of voting in person within the Black community.
Organizations and churches in states like Georgia and South Carolina are promoting early voting campaigns, such as “Souls to the Polls,” to encourage voters to avoid complications on election day, especially in light of restrictive voting laws enacted since the 2020 election. As of Saturday morning, over 1 million Black voters in Georgia had already cast their ballots.
Indicators of High Turnout
Stewart posits that early voting data suggests total voter turnout this year may match or exceed the record-breaking levels seen in 2020, with predictions potentially reaching 160 million voters. He noted that younger voters under 25 are yet to make a significant impact on early voting but tend to show up in large numbers on election day.
As the pandemic recedes, many early voters from 2020 may return to the polls on election day, particularly if it offers a more convenient option that fits their schedules.
Looking Ahead: The Future of Early Voting
Stewart predicts that the trend of early voting will continue to rise, particularly among Republican voters, while overall participation rates will likely remain high. “Data shows that even post-pandemic, there will be organic growth in early voting. Voters want more options, and as those options expand, their consideration for voting will deepen,” he concluded.
