Trump’s Vision: Deporting 11 Million People
Under Trump’s proposal, an estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants could face deportation, with a strategy aimed at removing one million people each year. His advisors suggest this effort would focus on individuals with criminal records initially, but specific criteria remain unclarified. As of fiscal year 2023, ICE conducted over 170,000 arrests, a 19.5% increase from the previous year. Trump’s plan, however, would amplify this significantly, scaling up efforts and resources far beyond current enforcement levels.
Projected Financial Costs of Mass Deportation
According to a new report by the American Immigration Council, deporting one million people per year could cost approximately $88 billion annually. This would translate to nearly $1 trillion over a decade, factoring in operational expenses but excluding the potential economic losses from tax revenue declines and disrupted labor. A larger one-time deportation effort to reach Trump’s targets could cost as much as $315 billion, largely due to detention and staffing costs.
Key costs include:
- Personnel Expansion: ICE would need to hire roughly 30,000 additional agents to execute this mission, marking a 24-fold increase in detention capacity.
- Detention Center Construction: Building and staffing new centers for up to 70,000 people would add substantial costs, requiring hundreds of billions over time.
Economic Consequences of Deporting Labor
The absence of undocumented immigrants could present significant economic challenges, as this group contributes substantially to tax revenue. In 2022 alone, undocumented families contributed over $46 billion in federal taxes and $29 billion in state and local taxes. Social Security and Medicare contributions from undocumented workers added an additional $28 billion. Beyond these figures, the loss of this labor force could disrupt industries heavily reliant on immigrant labor, including agriculture, hospitality, and construction.
Possible Military Involvement and Constitutional Concerns
Trump has suggested he might deploy National Guard units to assist in this mass deportation effort, an unprecedented use of military personnel in domestic immigration enforcement. This approach would require invoking the Insurrection Act, granting him authority to deploy the military domestically. However, this could raise legal and ethical issues, as the Posse Comitatus Act traditionally restricts military involvement in civilian law enforcement. Experts, including William Banks, founding director of Syracuse University’s Institute for National Security and Counterterrorism, warn that military deployment for deportation could blur the lines between civilian and military authority, potentially infringing on civil liberties.
Social and Human Implications
An aggressive mass deportation program could have far-reaching impacts on mixed-status families, many of which include U.S. citizen children. For those without deportation orders, Trump has suggested using wartime legal mechanisms like the 1798 Alien Enemy Act, historically used for detaining enemy aliens. This legal maneuvering could expose non-citizen residents to deportation without due process, an approach not used since WWII’s Japanese internment.
In addition, large-scale deportations could lead to an increase in “self-deportation,” as families might choose to leave voluntarily rather than face possible detention. Such policies may leave communities in constant fear, as legal immigrants could face heightened scrutiny, impacting mental health and stability. The American Immigration Council’s report notes that U.S. citizen children in immigrant families could experience prolonged psychological effects from heightened enforcement measures and family separations.
Trump’s proposals signal an unparalleled shift in immigration enforcement that could reshape the social and economic landscape of the United States. With immigration remaining a hot-button issue, the political, economic, and human costs of such a plan continue to fuel intense debate across the nation.
